Friday, 20 February 2015

Pound to euro exchange rate hits new 7-year high, most since Dec 2007

Sterling has hit its highest versus the euro since Dec 21st 2007 today, at 1.3619
by Peter Lavelle

The UK pound continues to hit new record highs against the euro today, touching 1.3619, its strongest since Decembr 21st 2007, or 7 years and 2 months. Sterling is rising, because UK retail sales continued to grow strongly in December, while the UK government achieved its biggest surplus since 2008 last month. Meanwhile, Germany’s crucial manufacturing sector neared stagnation for the second consecutive month in February, weakening the euro.

Sterling is flying, because UK retail sales rose +5.4% in January compared to the same time last year, according to figures released today by the Office for National Statistics. This was –0.5% less than forecast, yet nonetheless signals that British consumers feel comfortable shelling out, lifting both the UK economy and sterling.

Moreover, the pound is also climbing today, because the UK government achieved a budget surplus of £8.8 billion in January, the most since the start of the financial crisis in 2008. In total, this means the Coalition has borrowed £74 billion so far this financial year, -£6 million less than this time in 2014, and is thus succeeding in reducing the UK’s deficit. This also boosted the pound.

Meanwhile, the euro is on the back foot today, because Germany’s vast manufacturing bloc almost stagnated for the second consecutive month in February, according to economists Markit. German factories expanded just 50.9 this month, well below the 51.5 forecast, and dangerously close to the 50.0 that divides growth from contraction. This therefore brought down the euro today.